A new wave of cannabis markets could open in the Midwest this November. Voters in four Midwestern states plus Arkansas and Maryland will decide whether to expand their medical markets to anyone over the age of 21.
Oklahoma already has a nearly $1 B annual market in medical cannabis, with 9.3% of the population as registered patients. With a population of only 2.4 million over the age of 21, how much will the market expand?
There are several legal challenges against the OK ballot initiative that may prevent OK voters from choosing if they want a legal adult recreational market. These have not been resolved as of press time.
Missouri just began its legal medical cannabis market journey in 2020 after voters in 2018 approved Amendment 2 with 65.5% support. Legal sales through a limited number of dispensaries began in October of 2020, and sales and the number of dispensaries have expanded rapidly since then.
Hungry for more, Missouri voters will get to vote on an adult recreational Amendment 3 barely two years after legal, medical cannabis sales began. If approved, this would be the quickest turnover of a state from approval of medical cannabis to full legalization. The Show Me state is on track for $400 million in sales this year. Implementation of the adult market would project total annual sales to ~approximately 1 billion by 2025.
Arkansas voters will get to decide on Issue 4 in November which would, “authorize the possession, personal use, and consumption of cannabis by adults in Arkansas sold by licensed adult use dispensaries and provide for the regulation of those facilities.” Arkansas currently has a limited license medical cannabis market with total sales since 2019 at over $630 million. Recent polling shows support for Issue 4 at 59%.
Maryland Constitutional Amendment Question 4 – A marijuana legalization referendum will be on the ballot in Maryland after state lawmakers voted in April to put the question before voters this fall. In addition to cannabis legalization, prior marijuana-related convictions will also be expunged. Polling in Maryland mirrors Arkansas, with a recently published poll showing 59% support among likely voters. 1.69% of the population are currently registered cannabis patients, with about $600 million in annual sales. Approval in November would see Maryland become a multi-billion market by 2025.
North Dakota voters have a chance to approve marijuana legalization on the ballot this November. If approved, North Dakota would become a limited license state with only 18 retail licenses and seven cultivators. There would be no special cannabis tax placed on wholesale or retail sales, instead license renewal fees would be set at $90,000 per year with a $110,000 initial registration fee. The program would be implemented by the state Health and Human Services Department. The current medical market is one of the smallest in the US, with about $20 million in sales in the fiscal year 2022 which ended in June.
Nebraska fell short of valid signatures for a medical cannabis initiative in 2022, with activists saying they’ll try again through the legislature and another initiative effort in 2024.
If all the initiatives pass in November, there will be 24 states plus DC with adult recreational cannabis markets. Will further success in November and positive action from several state legislatures in the next year be enough to finally push Congress to act on comprehensive cannabis reform or a version of the critical SAFE Banking Act written about here several times before?
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